Solar Cycle 25 Started on Remarkable Times
Abstract:
First sunspots of solar cycle 25 appeared already since year 2016, according to their polarity. This work lists their dates, with some introduction about sunspot cycle and magnetic "color" (polarity) of sunspots.Sunspot Cycle
Solar magnetic activity has a cycle of approximately 11 years. But since the polar field of the Sun changes around time of solar maximum, and direction of sunspots is different in each cycle, it can be better understood as 22 year cycle (Hale cycle).First sunspots of the cycle start appearing at high latitudes, and then the sunspot belt shifts continually toward the solar equator, which produces the well-known butterfly diagram, which is linked to the faster-moving belt of torsional oscilation.
First sunspots of new cycle often appear, while there are still some sunspots of the old cycle.
Since 1874, sunspot positions were recorded at Greenwich observatory and then since 1977 continued by USAF by Solar Optical Observing Network.
I determined solar cycle starts by first appearance of high-latitude sunspots in that dataset, and since magnetic observations are available, from SOHO/MDI and SDO/HMI instruments:
| Cycle | Starting time | Possibly other starting time |
|---|---|---|
| SC 12 | 1879-04-15 | |
| SC 13 | 1890-03-04 | |
| SC 14 | 1902-03-06 | |
| SC 15 | 1913-10-08 | 1913-02-22 |
| SC 16 | 1923-09-04 | |
| SC 17 | 1934-02-01 | |
| SC 18 | 1943-05-20 | |
| SC 19 | 1954-10-05 | 1954-07-16 |
| SC 20 | 1963-10-11 | |
| SC 21 | 1975-10-02 | 1975-08-21 |
| SC 22 | 1986-07-07 | 1984-11-21 |
| SC 23 | 1996-05-07 (SOHO/MDI) | 1997-03-29 |
| SC 24 | 2008-09-23 (SOHO/MDI) | |
| SC 25 | 2016-12-11 (SDO/HMI) | 2019-02-12 (SDO/HMI) |
Most people (who know about sunspots) think, that sunspots are dark and color-less, but actually they are very colorful, but in different part of light spectrum, in extreme ultra-violet and X-ray part of spectrum.
Normal solar surface has black-body radiation around 6,000°K, but magnetic loops above sunspots are almost 1,000,000°K hot.
Color scale used for magnetograms from
JSOC.
Sunspot Polarity
But sunspots also have a "magnetic color", or rather a polarity of their strong magnetic field. Sunspots of each new cycle have oppositely oriented their positive and negative ends, and sunspots on northern hemisphere are oppositely oriented than sunspots on southern hemisphere:(Since "color" can be understood as a certain frequency of light, and since magnetic field of sunspots is measured by a Doppler shift and Zeeman Splitting of specific frequencies of light, then it probably could be thought of as another kind of color...)
Examples of polarity of sunspots in late SC 22, northern and southern hemispheres
These magnetograms are filtered with low-frequency filter (FFT-2D) to remove noise in SOHO/MDI magnetograms, and same is applied on SDO/HMI magnetograms for visual unification, and equator is drawn as a blue line.
Examples of polarity of sunspots in SC 23, northern and southern hemispheres
Examples of polarity of sunspots in SC 24, northern and southern hemispheres
Differential rotation profile in deg/day difference from Carrington rotation, 2010-2018
In SC23 and SC25, northern sunspots have positive field on leading (right) side (green color), negative field on trailing (left) side (yellow color), and southern sunspots are opposite.
(Animated Magnetic Map of Sun videos are available for SC 24 and SC 23 in rectangular projection, front side of Sun is as observed, far side of Sun is interpolated, flow profile of differential rotation is as measured by feature-tracking on SDO/HMI magnetograms...)
Notice, that SC24 (2008-2020) has been notably weaker than SC23 (1996-2009).
Magnetic field during solar cycles 23 and 24, one image per year, selecting some more active time of that year. ( SC23, SC24, video )
Some Active Regions evolve stronger and there appears a sunspot in visible spectrum, some do not.
Sunspot Cycle 25
Sunspot minimum after SC 24 has been unusually deep, calm and long, similarly as sunspot minimum between SC 23 and SC 24, both being deepest minimums in at least a century...First sunspots or active regions of SC 25, as determined by their polarity, different from SC 24 sunspots, appeared occasionally since December 2016, but then since February 2019 started to appear more frequently. Sunspots of old cycle SC 24 still occur in early 2020...
Follows a list of probably every sunspot I found with polarity of SC25. Active Regions, that did not produce detectable sunspot, are omitted. Some of them I've noticed visually, and the rest was detected by programming approach and then verified visually, which way even small sunspots or those at unexpected low-latitude locations were discovered. As sunspots of new cycle start to appear at high latitudes, low-latitude sunspots with new polarity are rather exceptional...
(But listing even the tiny sunspots somehow dilutes the boldness of the message of the larger ones...)
Next active region of SC 25 appeared on evening of Fourth Advent Sunday, on 2016-12-18, with a sunspot appearing the next day and intensifying on 2016-12-20. (Ref 8, Ref 9)
The cycle SC 24 was still underway and these were unexpected...
Possible remnant of another active region of SC 25 rolled into view on eastern limb on 2017-07-01 with no more sunspots, on a relatively low latitude of 14° South. It originated some time between 2017-06-17 and 2017-06-22 on far side of the Sun. (As it rolled into view of Stereo A, while the originating place could have been seen by Stereo B, if it was still operating.)
Next sunspot of SC 25 appeared on Orthodox Easter Monday, on 2018-04-09. (Ref 10)
It was a first sunspot on northern hemisphere. (Ref 9)
(Also notable on this day 3 years ago in 2016 Pope Francis and Patriarch Kirill signed
an Ecumenical Declaration
in the first such meeting between leaders of the Catholic and Russian Orthodox Churches
since their split in 1054...)
(At Roman antiquity times, year started in March,
as is still evidenced by month names September to December being named by latin numerals 7 to 10,
while the first months are named by Roman Emperors - Marcus Aurilius Maius Iunius Julius Augustus?)
A high-latitude (25.3° north) and very tiny sunspot with unknown polarity (because it had only one half of the typical field) occured on Pi Day on 2019-03-14 ...
(Maybe it was just a noise on HMIIF 2048 jpeg?)
As Jan Hus appealed his condemnation by a rogue council,
which was quarreling for a political might at the time of three popes,
to the Jesus Christ himself, no-one on Earth could arbitrate his case or holiness before,
even when pope Jan Paul II. apologized for his execution at year 2000.
But this time the arbitration in favour of sanctity of Jan Hus came undeniably from the Sun from God and 24 "old ones"...
But this time the arbitration in favour of sanctity of Jan Hus came undeniably from the Sun from God and 24 "old ones"...
A high-latitude (14.2° north) sunspot of old cycle SC 24 occured on 2019-09-01...
(Earlier on this day 2019-11-11, between 12:40 UTC and 18:07 UTC occured transit of Mercury in front of Sun with center at 15:25:14 UTC)
It is also an Armistice Day, celebrating the end of World War...
(A short sunspot also appeared in this Active Region around midnight between 2019-11-17 and 2019-11-18 ...)
Another very tiny sunspot of SC 25 polarity occured on same day 2019-11-11 on another place...
A high-latitude (23.6° north) sunspot with old SC 24 polarity occured on Saint Nicholas Day on 2019-12-06...
Another tiny sunspot with SC 25 popularity occured on Expectation of the Blessed Virgin Mary on 2019-12-18 .
On 2019-12-19 is Orthodox date of Saint Nicholas Day.
(Proper dating of Bethlehem star is on 23rd December 3 BC in proleptic gregorian calendar)
(Other reported Active Regions (Ref 12) were not sufficiently resolved or clearly oriented in new way and were rather part of a normal noise.)
(January 19 is date of Epiphany in Eastern Orthodox church...
January 20 has multiple meanings...)
(This year is a Year of the Mouse...)
It is also a date of Feast of Conversion of St.Paul and it is end of Week of Prayer for Christian Unity.
| Time of Active Region appearance on Magnetogram |
Time of Sunspot on Intensitygram |
Remarks |
|---|---|---|
| 2016-12-11 00:00 (new, tiny) | 2016-12-11 07:00 | Third Advent Sunday |
| 2016-12-18 09:00 (new) | 2016-12-19 16:00 | Fourth Advent Sunday (AR 2620) |
| 2018-03-14 21:00 (new, low-lat) | 2018-03-15 13:00 | Pi Day |
| 2018-03-29 00:00 (rolling on limb,low-lat) | 2018-03-29 13:00 | Easter Maundy Thursday (AR 2703) |
| 2018-04-09 02:00 (new) | 2018-04-09 11:00 | Orthodox Easter Monday |
| 2018-08-23 11:00 (new, low-lat, unclear) | 2018-08-23 16:00 | Black Ribbon Day |
| 2018-11-07 15:00 (new) | 2018-11-08 07:00 | Four Crowned Martyrs, Oct. revolution |
| 2018-11-17 09:00 (new) | 2018-11-17 16:00 | International Students' Day |
| 2019-02-12 16:00 (new) | 2019-02-12 22:00 | Darwin Day |
| 2019-03-01 18:00 (rolling on limb) | Roman New Year | |
| 2019-03-03 12:00 (new, low-lat) | 2019-03-04 13:00 | Estomihi (Quinquadesima) |
| 2019-05-28 18:00 (new, low-lat) | 2019-05-29 07:00 | Ascension of Baha'u'llah |
| 2019-06-29 21:00 (new) | 2019-06-30 16:00 | Saints Peter and Paul |
| 2019-07-06 12:00 (new) | 2019-07-06 16:00 | martyrdom of Jan Hus (AR 2744) |
| 2019-08-06 06:00 (new, low-lat) | 2019-08-06 19:00 | Transfiguration, Hiroshima |
| 2019-10-31 06:00 (new) | 2019-11-01 01:00 | All Saints Day (AR 2750) |
| 2019-11-11 21:00 (rolling on limb) | 2019-11-12 13:00 | Saint Martin (AR 2752) |
| 2019-11-11 06:00 (new, tiny) | 2019-11-11 10:00 | Saint Martin |
| 2019-12-09 04:00 (new, tiny) | 2019-12-09 07:00 | Feast of Immaculate Conception |
| 2019-12-18 06:00 (new) | 2019-12-18 16:00 | Expectation of the Blessed Virgin Mary |
| 2019-12-23 06:00 (new) | 2019-12-23 16:00 | Christmas Day (almost) (AR 2753) |
| 2019-12-23 21:00 (new) | 2019-12-24 13:00 | Christmas Eve (AR 2754) |
| 2019-12-31 23:00 (new) | 2020-01-01 04:00 | New Year Day (AR 2755) |
| 2020-01-07 12:00 (new) | 2020-01-08 13:00 | Orthodox Christmas Day (AR 2756) |
| 2020-01-18 06:00 (new) | 2020-01-18 13:00 2020-01-19 19:00 | Confession of St. Peter, Christian Unity. Orthodox Epiphany |
| 2020-01-24 21:00 (rolling on limb) | 2020-01-25 13:00 | Chinese New Year, Confession of Paul |
| 2020-02-06 17:00 (new) | 2020-02-07 07:00 | New Martyrs of the Russian Church |
Conclusion
While on former years, sunspots seemed to appear in relation with planetary positions (Apparent Relations between Solar Activity and Solar Tides, Ching-Cheh Hung 2007 - [archived]), or at random, this time their correspondence with times of Christian holidays and starts of Calendary does not appear random at all and is hardly deniable...At first in early 2019 I noticed the sunspot on Easter Monday 2018. Then I noticed the Jan Hus sunspot, a nice coincidence. But when I noticed sunspot on Christmas Eve, it was clearly a message. (I was not initially hunting for all new sunspots and noticing just few was enough to consider the cycle started.) Then investigating other sunspots in 2019, I noticed other dates of calendar starts and various saints and it confirmed the message. Only when trying to publish this, I noted other works listing other sunspots, some unexpectedly early in 2016, and needed to fill the table more completely, which somehow diluted the boldness of the message about Darwin and Jan Hus, but not completely, as the position of sunspots on feasts remained consistent. Then using programming approach to search for all spots on SDO/HMIIF intensitygrams and matching them on SDO/HMIB magnetograms to detect their polarity revealed even more sunspots tiny enough to be overlooked during visual inspection.
You may argue, that there are many christian feasts around the year. But these first sunspots of SC 25 are on major christian feasts and holidays, calendary starts, and just few exceptions so far. Excluding the 2 exceptions on advent sundays of 2016, there are almost 700 days between March 2018 and February 2020, with 24 sunspots counted, all falling on significant holidays.
Beside Christmas, Easter and St. Mary it lists saints Peter, Paul, Martin and Jan Hus, it lists four crowned martyrs and new martyrs of Russian Church. International Student's day and Pi Day are listed twice in these years, and Darwin is there to remember the churches of a reality of evolution.
I understand, that atheistic community would not be pleased by this revelation, and neither some of the churches, both with their Pride about fictitious infallibility and their superstitions.
Also the scientists just believed incorrect blunders, while scorning at believers for backwardness.
Video (or avi) is available with the Sunpots... (SDO/HMI Magnetogram, cropped and full-disk, SDO/HMIIF Intensitygram, SDO/AIA 171A EUV)
Supplement is available with text remarks to this list, JSON format listing of all sunspots in this time-span, and chart with interpolated magnetic intensity of SC23 and SC24...
(Updated 2020-02-29, πα½)
References
1. Solar Cycle Science, Dr. David Hathaway, solarcyclescience.com/solarcycle.html2. The Sunspot Cycle, NASA MSFC, solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/SunspotCycle.shtml
3. Hale Cycle, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hale_cycle#Solar_dynamo , archive 2019-10-30
4. The Pattern of Rotation Rate Deviation Known as the Torsional Oscillations, Roger Ulrich, www.astro.ucla.edu/~ulrich/Torsional_Oscillations.html
5. GSSN - Interpolated Sunspot area and Synoptic Sunspot Map 1874-2012, P.A.Semi semi.gurroa.cz/Astro/gssn.html
6. Synoptic Charts of the Photospheric Line-of-Sight Magnetic Field, JSOC, jsoc.stanford.edu/new/HMI/LOS_Synoptic_charts.html
7. Solar and sunspot videos, P.A.Semi, pialpha.cz/Sun
8. The First Signs of Solar Cycle 25, Dean Pesnell, sdoisgo.blogspot.com/2018/04/the-first-signs-of-solar-cycle-25.html
9. A Sunspot from the Next Solar Cycle, Dr.Tony Phillips, spaceweatherarchive.com/2018/11/20/a-sunspot-from-the-next-solar-cycle/
10. A Sunspot from Cycle 25 for sure, Tomek Mrozek and Hugh Hudson, sprg.ssl.berkeley.edu/~tohban/wiki/index.php/A_Sunspot_from_Cycle_25_for_sure
11. SpaceWeather time machine, spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=24&month=12&year=2019
12. Cycle 25 observations in SDO HMI imagery, Solen Info, solen.info/solar/cycle25_spots.html , archive 2020-01-11